treasuries

Perhaps the greatest of all the financial myths out there is that investing in U.S. Treasuries is a risk-free endeavor… The truth is that a U.S. Treasury security with a 10-year maturity is anything but risk-free.

We know this company as a popular discount broker but as it has moved into retail banking it is finding itself slowly slipping under water.

The recent surge in foreign banks buying gold has occurred alongside a sharp decline in their purchases of U.S. Treasury debt. The result could ultimately lead to a “debt doom loop”.

Speculators are betting heavily against the price of 10-year U.S. Treasuries. It's the second-largest short position since the CFTC began keeping records in 1992. History tells us this type of extreme positioning means bond prices are headed higher...

In our view, the distress ratio is likely to double or triple from its current level by late 2023 or early 2024. And that means a crop of new distressed opportunities will soon arise.