The end of the rate hike cycle is a huge deal. Since 1980, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes have averaged huge gains in the following 24 months. Our proprietary inflation index says the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates any more…
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Our proprietary indicators tell us inflation should fall even more in the months ahead. And fading cost growth means the Federal Reserve will soon be able to stop raising interest rates.
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Our leading indicator of inflation growth tells us the Consumer Price Index is headed even lower when the May data is released. That should support the outlook for stocks…
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The real federal funds rate (interest rates minus CPI) recently turned positive. It should expand more by year’s end. That has historically preceded big rallies in technology stocks.
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If the Federal Reserve is ending rate hikes, that means we’re reaching peak interest rates. And if you’re a bond investor, that’s a huge deal… because, if the coupon payment on sovereign debt isn’t going higher, soon you won’t be able to lock in today’s high yield.
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America is not yet lost. But we are very close to the complete collapse of not only our financial system, but our entire way of life.
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When a company has a dominant brand with pricing power, robust profit margins, and high capital efficiency, the returns can be enormous. Today, we’ll introduce a company that checks all these boxes and has used every downturn to acquire weaker competitors and take market share.
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Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to put an end to inflation. Unfortunately – for Powell, for markets, and for investors – it appears increasingly unlikely that he’ll get his wish.
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Right now, U.S. gas prices are among the lowest in the world. But as America increasingly expands its LNG export infrastructure, U.S. natural gas prices will increasingly converge with much-higher international prices. And the companies that own low-cost gas reserves today will reap a windfall.
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In many ways, the 2020s inflation scenario matches that of the 1970s.
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