The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) – which tracks a basket of indicators whose changes tend to precede changes in the real economy – also declined again in June, bringing its current “peak-to-trough” drawdown to -9.9%. Since 1960, contractions of this magnitude have only occurred when the economy was already in a recession (from Liz Ann Sonders via Twitter on July 21)…

U.S. shale production is set to fall next month for the first time this year (from Reuters via Nasdaq.com on July 17)…

U.S. shale oil production is set to fall to nearly 9.40 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, which would be the first monthly decline since Dec. 2022, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday. Output from the Permian basin, the top oil producing region in the country, is set to fall to