00:00 Introduction 00:27 Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle 07:57 How To Measure Liquidity 15:51 A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon 24:09 Is The Fed Behind The Curve? 29:10 Inflation 38:25 Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough… Yet 43:17 When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds 50:44 Private vs Public Sector
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The basis trade, an innocuous-looking practice at the center of some of Wall Street’s historic blowups, is back.  A popular way for hedge funds to profit from bond trading while minimizing their exposure to swings in the market, the basis trade exploits the price difference between Treasurys and Treasury futures. The resurgence is attracting fresh
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The “boycott” of US Treasuries in living color…

Today’s bond market hinges on three assumptions: a negative term premium, low inflation, and a stagnant neutral rate. Yet, from a chart perspective, it seems obvious that the secular bull market for bonds ended in 2020. That puts all the assumptions to the test.

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.  The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’
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The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets. “Buybacks can play an important role in helping to make the Treasury market more liquid and resilient,” Frost said Thursday in
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There is a rare and powerful trend occurring in bond markets. History shows that if left unchecked, it can cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. A thread. Over the last 3 months, US bond markets are in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. The TMC VAMD
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10-Year Treasury Yield moved up to 4.55% today, highest since Oct 2007.  Real 10-Year Yield (adjusted for expected inflation) of 2.18% is the highest since Jan 2009.  Good times for new bond investors, bad times for existing bond investors.

from Deutsche Bank — 10-year Treasury yields have averaged 4.5% in 233 years of data we’re back to normal baybee