A dollar from 1800 is worth just over $0.04 today, but that same dollar invested in stocks would be worth $2.3 million now after 223 years. Gold would be worth just $4.06.
Back in the 1980s, President Reagan took enormous political heat (Sam Donaldson comes to mind) for being fiscally irresponsible. His offense? Presiding over a budget deficit that peaked at 5.9% of GDP in Fiscal Year 1983. But at least Reagan had an excuse. Actually, multiple excuses. The unemployment rate averaged 10.1% in FY 1983, which
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“The tech megacaps command a 78% premium which is even larger than the peak logged during the COVID lockdowns – this despite the increase in long-term yields that should be most damaging to expensive growth stocks.” by @VincentDeluard
Walmart is paying some new store workers less than it would have three months ago, a sign that employers are seeking to cut labor costs as the once-hot market for hourly staff cools. The country’s largest private employer changed its wage structure for hourly workers in mid-July, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street
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Investors tend to think of stocks and bonds as negatively correlated, with stocks doing well in positive growth environments and bonds doing well when growth slows or declines. And that was largely true for the last quarter century. But earlier this year, the trailing three-year correlation between stocks and bonds turned positive for the first
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Keep an eye on the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield. Since 1990, it has only been this high three other times… 2Q 2000, 4Q 2008. and 1Q 2020. Each of those marked a major inflection point for the S&P 500 Index…
In straightforward absolute terms, without comparing to bond yields, equity valuations are again getting hard to ignore. In the 12 months to the end of August, the S&P 500 managed a price return of 14%. Of that, increasing price/earnings multiples accounted for 12.4 percentage points, according to a decomposition by Patrick Palfrey of Credit Suisse
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Great chart from @NancyRLazar1 of @Piper_Sandler this morning. Excess Savings. “They’ve already declined sharply, set to hit $0 by Halloween. Surging student loan interest payments will hasten that drawdown.”
From Goldman, potentially three big hits coming to economic activity. Student loan resumption, UAW strike, and government shutdown.
