Stocks dropped 10% over a four-week period in February and March. As is usually the case, the performance of bonds didn’t capture quite as many headlines. But their behavior as equities sank is worth examining – especially by investors who don’t know about the benefits of distressed bonds.
Tight credit isn’t the only factor driving the Distress Ratio’s rise and fall. But it’s a powerful one that’s likely to keep making it harder for struggling companies to refinance their maturing debt in coming months. It all adds up to a likelihood that distressed-debt investors will have a significantly wider array of bonds to choose from before very long.
This nutrition company was the focus of an epic battle of two investment titans. Since that dispute ended, shares have been up and down – now creating an opportunity to buy the company’s bond at a very large discount.
The total return of the average distressed bond exceeded 30% in 2024, beating the S&P 500 Index’s total return, which was well above its own historical average, at 25%. Still, with many big losers in that average, picking the right bonds is essential with distressed investing.
High-yield bonds often predict the direction of their companies’ associated stocks a few months in advance. We’ve taken advantage of this phenomenon with three bond recommendations followed by the same companies’ shares. And in this issue, we’re doing the same thing…
First a supply-chain bottleneck, then a warehouse fire, sent this hugely popular, non-brick-and-mortar company’s revenue plunging. It has fought its way back and now finds itself on solid ground once again.
When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. Most segments obey that rule, by falling in price, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose. But not distressed bonds.
When investing in distressed debt, be very selective about which distressed bonds you buy. Buying a market basket of assets – a quick, efficient way of adding to equity holdings – is not a smart alternative with distressed debt.
The media likes to guess how the outcome of the U.S. presidential election will play out in the financial markets. Here, Marty Fridson analyzes past distressed-debt data to discover if it actually matters who wins on November 5: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Within the junk heap of distressed debt are bonds of companies that turn themselves around and get out of distress. Those bonds re-enter the non-distressed ranks, rewarding holders with big price gains on top of the super-high yields earned along the way.