Economics & Markets

The lagging effects of monetary policy are about to start impacting financial markets. With a two-year lead, changes in Fed funds rates have often foreshadowed significant volatility events in equity markets. The current narrowing leadership in the stock market, coupled with numerous recession indicators sounding alarms, supports the argument that volatility is currently unsustainably suppressed.

Bloomberg shared some evidence of the cost of living crisis many Americans face today. Since 2020:  Groceries: +25% Home Values: +42%  Electricity Bills: +25% Natural gas: +29% Rent: +20% Used Car: +35% Car Insurance: +33%  Child care: +32%  Food at restaurants Chicken dishes: +32%  Burgers: +23% Pasta: +14% Pizza: +17% Meanwhile, instead of addressing the

The U.S. has long been the lender of last resort to the world. During the emerging-market panics of the 1990s, the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the pandemic shutdown of 2020, it was the Treasury’s unmatched capacity to borrow that came to the rescue. Now, the Treasury itself is a source of risk. No,

Naturally, the bond carnage has been feeding worries that something somewhere will somehow “break”. MainFT ran a good rundown of the usual suspects this morning. But there’s arguably one missing. Thanks to resilient growth and the remarkable American consumer, listed US companies remain on average incredibly profitable, but the rising cost of debt is starting

We have long said that we did not think BRICS would launch or even needed a single BRICS currency, but would instead pursue local currency trade, settled in goods and with any net deficits settled in gold that floated in all currencies. This week, Putin voiced remarkably similar views in a speech at the Valdai

Why has consumer spending proven so resilient as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates? An important and little-appreciated reason: Consumers are getting older. In August, 17.7% of the population was 65 or older, according to the Census Bureau, the highest on record going back to 1920 and up sharply from 13% in 2010. The