In [our Q3 report], we presented how the US Government Fiscal doom loop was getting worse and how mathematically US Federal borrowings were crowding out the debt markets – sending interest rates higher. The nearly parabolic growth in US Federal interest costs is making the deficit worse and without monetary accommodation, we suggested that the
US public pension plans that manage hundreds of billions of dollars of assets are increasingly turning to risky leverage strategies as burgeoning private market holdings create cash flow strains. At least eight very large US public pension funds are using borrowed cash or other leverage strategies, now that the board of Calstrs, one of the
Since 1952, the S&P 500 has finished each presidential election year in the green except 3 times. And each of those was an open election without an incumbent running.
What: The S&P 500 made its first new high in more than 500 days on Friday – snapping what had been the 6th longest streak on record (back to 1950) without a new high. At the same time, the number of stocks making new lows (on both the NYSE and NASDAQ) has expanded every week
As budget deficits surge toward the stratosphere, Congress will soon have to get serious about savings proposals. Yet reforming Social Security and Medicare—the leading drivers of long-term deficits—remains a political nonstarter. Neither party is willing to raise middle-class taxes. And cutting defense and social spending would save at most $200 billion annually from deficits that
Celebrating the S&P record high? Recession averted? Gerard Minack notes “The SPX is typically within 2% of its cycle high 2 months before the start of a recession.” Going into recession, the equity market collapse comes AFTER the Fed starts cutting rates as profits collapse.
Trading in options contracts on the verge of expiration surged last week, just as the S&P 500 logged its first record close in two years, according to data shared by a top U.S. equity market strategist at Citigroup. Options contracts with 24 hours or less left until expiration saw a spike in trading volume last
It’s always called a soft landing. At first…
The unusual divergence in the chart tells me that the sales cycle has decisively turned downward in the last quarter (aka recession) but that companies have used the cover of rapidly falling raw material input costs to boost margins even further – aka Greedflation.
Liquidity is one the most important yet misunderstood macro variables. This thread will help you understand how it works. This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro. People like simple narratives: the Fed is ”pumping money” into the ”system” and that’s why equity markets go up. That’s just NOT how