Sovereign/Government
History says it’s still too soon to dismiss the significance of last fall’s Treasury yield curve inversion (from the Financial Times on July 5)…
The puzzle here, as we see it, is how to balance evidence of a remarkably strong economy against the history of past rate-rising cycles and the accompanying inverted yield curves. First quarter 2023 real GDP was almost 2 per cent, estimates for second-quarter growth look similarly healthy, the housing market is resilient, consumer confidence is
Data from JPMorgan suggest investors are “in love” with Treasury debt again (from The Daily Shot on June 21)…
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Recent research suggests the past four decades of equity-like returns in bonds were an historical exception that’s unlikely to continue (from the Financial Times on February 25)…
Last year was the worst for bond markets in more than a century and marked the end of a four-decade long “golden age” for the asset class which is unlikely to be repeated, according to a trio of academics. Global bonds lost 31 per cent in 2022, the worst annual performance for fixed income in
U.S. Treasury market volatility was unprecedented in March (from the Financial Times on March 30)…
As the screams of agony from macro hedge funds and CTAs have indicated, this month has been, well, mental for the Treasury market. It’s incredible what a small sudden banking crisis can do isn’t it? First, some back-story: A weird anomaly about the US bond market is that Treasuries — arguably the single most important