Several signals suggest the U.S. consumer is already “tapping out” (from The Daily Spark on July 6)…

Just when everyone is abandoning the recession call, the data starts to slow down. 1) The Restaurant Performance Index has sharply declined in recent months… 2) Credit card and auto loan delinquencies continue to rise, and these trends will continue with the Fed on hold well into next year… 3) Weekly data for bank lending

This simple chart explains why consumer spending has held up longer than economic data would have otherwise suggested (from The Daily Spark with Dr. Torsten Sløk on June 5)…

Households still have plenty of excess savings left, see chart below. That is the reason why consumer spending remains so strong, in particular consumer spending on services such as airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc. Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Reports from multiple retailers suggest a growing number of consumers have now reached a “tipping point” (from Palm Valley Capital Management on June 7)…

Based on recent reports from many of the consumer companies we follow, we agree with Walmart—the consumer is under a lot of stress. Even with unemployment near record lows, the average consumer is having trouble affording tires, shoes, apparel, and other goods. The main culprit, accumulated inflation, is crushing middle to lower-income consumers. Meanwhile, high-end

Citizens Financial Group announces it is exiting the auto loan business (from Business Wire on June 7)…

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: CFG) today announced that it will no longer originate indirect auto loans, effective July 1, 2023, as part of its strategy to optimize its balance sheet and emphasize relationship-based lending. Citizens will retain and continue to service existing auto loans on its balance sheet. “As Citizens continues to optimize its

A recent survey suggests more than half of borrowers – including those earning more than $100,000 per year – will have trouble resuming student loan repayments this summer (from Morning Consult on June 8)…

More than three years after a moratorium on student loan repayments was enacted by the federal government, borrowers are now staring down a rapidly approaching end to the pause. New rules passed as part of the recent debt ceiling legislation dictate that the Biden administration cannot extend the pause again, and so payments are now

Consumer credit surges to a new record high – led by credit card debt (from MishTalk on June 10)…

Consumer Credit numbers from the Fed, chart by Mish. Consumer Credit numbers for April are from the Fed’s G.19 Consumer Credit report. Nominal Growth Synopsis Nonrevolving Government Credit (student loans) is best viewed as essentially unchanged for three months. Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Consumer Credit numbers from the Fed, calculation and chart

Auto loan delinquencies – led by subprime – have now surpassed their Great Financial Crisis peak (from S&P Global Mobility via PRNewswire on June 20)…

With American households battling inflation and rising interest rates, auto lenders are seeing increased occurrences of auto-loan delinquencies – but almost entirely in the subprime segment. Surpassing levels last seen during the Great Recession, account-level delinquency rates of auto loans 60+ days past due (DPD) have risen 26 basis points from Q1 2021’s 1.43% to