As distressed-debt analysts, we have to keep tabs on the developments with the bankruptcy code. Typically, our most likely case is that the bond issuer will manage to make all the required interest payments and repay the principal at maturity. But not always.
In the May 9 Distressed Investing report “Cracking The Code,” we recommended purchasing Green Plains’ 2.25% bonds maturing March 15, 2027. We now recommend selling those bonds. In May, when we recommended them, the bonds were trading at $785, which equated to an annual return of just over 16%. We suggested pairing each bond with
Yesterday, aTyr Pharma (Nasdaq: ATYR) reported that its Phase 3 trial of efzofitimod in pulmonary sarcoidosis failed to meet its primary endpoint. The study’s results were doomed by a much higher-than-expected placebo effect, making it impossible for efzofitimod to attain the statistically significant differentiation relative to placebo needed for the trial’s success. Shares of aTyr
This month’s recommendation reminds us of our very first recommendation in March 2023, when we wrote about Diversified Healthcare Trust’s 9.75% bonds. We believe that in both cases, investors were looking backward rather than forward, creating an opportunity for high, risk-adjusted returns.
Yesterday, August 27, Green Plains (Nasdaq: GPRE) announced that it had agreed to sell its 120 million gallon per year ethanol plant in Obion, Tennessee, for $190 million. This equates to an impressive valuation of $1.58 per gallon of capacity. Shares of GPRE rose 12% to $11.18 per share following the news. We recommend selling half
Many investors believe the biggest mistake you can make is buying a stock that performs poorly. But those mistakes are not as bad as selling great businesses… or not buying them to begin with.
Many beaten-down bonds deserve to be beaten down and never to recover. A smaller number of issuers, also beaten down, do have the wherewithal to make good on their obligations and strengthen their balance sheets.
Most investors think of bonds as unspectacular but steady performers whose role is to stabilize a portfolio that also contains the higher-octane asset class of common stocks. But subscribers to our Distressed Investing research know there’s another side to the story.
Today Marty Fridson offers a word of caution for investors: The opportunity to purchase closed-end fund shares for less than the value of the assets they represent sounds like free money. But there’s a catch, he says.
A noteworthy entrant to the distressed ranks is Xerox (XRX) – in the 1980s, the copier producer’s stock was one of the greatest performers ever, registering an astounding 4,500-fold gain in the 50 years through its all-time high on May 3, 1999. Xerox’s senior debt is now on the watchlist for downgrading.