In looking at the distressed-bond market today, Marty Fridson suggests: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to get very bumpy. But investors who remain rational will profit extravagantly from the foreseeable disconnect between value and price in the lower-quality end of the corporate bond market.
In the Distressed Investing April 10 report, “Car Talk,” we recommended buying Cerence AI’s 1.5% convertible bond maturing July 1, 2028. Today, we recommend selling the bond. At the time of the recommendation, the bond was priced at $692, which equated to annual yield of 13.6%. We indicated that we thought it extremely unlikely that
In the May 8 Distressed Investing report, “Cracking the Code,” we recommended the combined $1,000 purchase of one Green Plains 2.25% convertible bond, then trading at $774, and shares of Green Plain stock (Nasdaq: GPRE), then trading at $3.66. At the time this equated to one bond and 61.7 shares. Recently we recommended selling the
Investors are concerned that the products of the company featured this month are on the wrong side of history and condemned to permanent decline. This report will explain how the company is reinventing itself – and will remain a survivor – and propelling the price of its bond higher.
As distressed-debt analysts, we have to keep tabs on the developments with the bankruptcy code. Typically, our most likely case is that the bond issuer will manage to make all the required interest payments and repay the principal at maturity. But not always.
In the May 9 Distressed Investing report “Cracking The Code,” we recommended purchasing Green Plains’ 2.25% bonds maturing March 15, 2027. We now recommend selling those bonds. In May, when we recommended them, the bonds were trading at $785, which equated to an annual return of just over 16%. We suggested pairing each bond with
Yesterday, aTyr Pharma (Nasdaq: ATYR) reported that its Phase 3 trial of efzofitimod in pulmonary sarcoidosis failed to meet its primary endpoint. The study’s results were doomed by a much higher-than-expected placebo effect, making it impossible for efzofitimod to attain the statistically significant differentiation relative to placebo needed for the trial’s success. Shares of aTyr
This month’s recommendation reminds us of our very first recommendation in March 2023, when we wrote about Diversified Healthcare Trust’s 9.75% bonds. We believe that in both cases, investors were looking backward rather than forward, creating an opportunity for high, risk-adjusted returns.
Yesterday, August 27, Green Plains (Nasdaq: GPRE) announced that it had agreed to sell its 120 million gallon per year ethanol plant in Obion, Tennessee, for $190 million. This equates to an impressive valuation of $1.58 per gallon of capacity. Shares of GPRE rose 12% to $11.18 per share following the news. We recommend selling half
Many investors believe the biggest mistake you can make is buying a stock that performs poorly. But those mistakes are not as bad as selling great businesses… or not buying them to begin with.