Investment Chronicles Intro
- Investment Chronicles Issue 05
- Several highly reliable signals suggest a recession is imminent. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 46 in June. Over the last 70 years, similar levels have indicated the U.S. was already in a recession with very few false positives (from Charlie Bilello via Twitter on July 3)…
- And as Michael Kantro – Chief Investment Strategist at investment bank Piper Sandler – reminds us, every impending recession looks like a “soft landing,” until it doesn’t (from Kantro via Twitter on July 22)…
- The LEI has also now contracted for 15 consecutive months, a streak that has only occurred twice before: during the severe recession of 1973-1974 and the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 (from Liz Ann Sonders via Twitter on July 21)…
Scroll Up- The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has never been this inverted without a severe recession following (from Ian Harnett via Twitter on July 5)…
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) – which tracks a basket of indicators whose changes tend to precede changes in the real economy – also declined again in June, bringing its current “peak-to-trough” drawdown to -9.9%. Since 1960, contractions of this magnitude have only occurred when the economy was already in a recession (from Liz Ann Sonders via Twitter on July 21)…
- U.S. households’ net worth is declining sharply for only the second time in 35 years (from Game of Trades via Twitter on July 7)…
- Investment Chronicles Issue 04
- U.S. shale production is set to fall next month for the first time this year (from Reuters via Nasdaq.com on July 17)…
U.S. shale oil production is set to fall to nearly 9.40 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, which would be the first monthly decline since Dec. 2022, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday. Output from the Permian basin, the top oil producing region in the country,
Read More …- The shale oil industry is shutting down drilling rigs at the fastest pace in years (from The Wall Street Journal on July 17)…
The shale patch is shedding rigs at the fastest pace since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic despite healthy oil prices. Behind the drop in rigs is a tale of the haves and the have-nots. Private companies, which added rigs at a breakneck pace as the pandemic abated, have drilled
Read More …
- Several highly reliable signals suggest a recession is imminent. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 46 in June. Over the last 70 years, similar levels have indicated the U.S. was already in a recession with very few false positives (from Charlie Bilello via Twitter on July 3)…