Speculators are betting heavily against the price of 10-year U.S. Treasuries. It’s the second-largest short position since the CFTC began keeping records in 1992. History tells us this type of extreme positioning means bond prices are headed higher…
Last year’s sell-off in technology stocks crushed the shares of internet-infrastructure giant Amazon. But a recent momentum shift in the share price signals big gains may lie ahead.
Our leading indicator of inflation growth tells us the Consumer Price Index is headed even lower when the May data is released. That should support the outlook for stocks…
The large amount of refinancing and purchase activity that took place during the COVID boom means existing homeowners are unlikely to add supply to the market. Interest rate hikes slowed down one part of the housing market, but they’re creating a tailwind for another…
The real federal funds rate (interest rates minus CPI) recently turned positive. It should expand more by year’s end. That has historically preceded big rallies in technology stocks.
Speculator short positioning in stocks has reached an extreme. They’re all piled into the same negative bets. Before long, those same investors will rush for the exit, creating a scramble to buy back stock.
If the Federal Reserve is ending rate hikes, that means we’re reaching peak interest rates. And if you’re a bond investor, that’s a huge deal… because, if the coupon payment on sovereign debt isn’t going higher, soon you won’t be able to lock in today’s high yield.