Investment Chronicles
Every recession looks like a “soft landing” initially (from Win Smart, CFA via X)…
It’s always called a soft landing. At first…
Data suggest corporate revenue has peaked (from Albert Edwards via X)…
The unusual divergence in the chart tells me that the sales cycle has decisively turned downward in the last quarter (aka recession) but that companies have used the cover of rapidly falling raw material input costs to boost margins even further – aka Greedflation.
Here’s a contrarian look at “liquidity” (from Alf via X)…
Liquidity is one the most important yet misunderstood macro variables. This thread will help you understand how it works. This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro. People like simple narratives: the Fed is ”pumping money” into the ”system” and that’s why equity markets go up. That’s just NOT how
The effects of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle are likely only now beginning to be felt (from Otavio Costa via X)…
The lagging effects of monetary policy are about to start impacting financial markets. With a two-year lead, changes in Fed funds rates have often foreshadowed significant volatility events in equity markets. The current narrowing leadership in the stock market, coupled with numerous recession indicators sounding alarms, supports the argument that volatility is currently unsustainably suppressed.