History suggests a new commodity cycle is underway (from Crescat Capital)…

We believe that November 2021 marked the beginning of a new investment cycle, characterized by a critical shift in market correlations across different asset classes. During this period, businesses operating at unsustainable valuations faced a moment of reckoning, and the global fixed-income market underwent a complete collapse. Safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese Yen, notably

But this commodity cycle may be different from the last (from PauloMacro’s Substack)…

In 2003 I fell into commodities and related equities by sheer dumb luck. It felt like a curse at the time, but today I tell anyone in their 20s to embrace the research coverage that nobody on the team wants, especially if that sector or region has gone nowhere for ten years. Inside three years,

The U.S. SEC officially approved spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) this month (from The Wall Street Journal)…

The first U.S. ETFs that hold bitcoin were cleared Wednesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission. They were hailed by the crypto industry as a game changer that would allow mainstream investors to buy and sell bitcoin as easily as stocks and mutual funds. Investors responded enthusiastically. More than $4.6 billion of shares across 10

Why Bitcoin ETFs matter (from Timothy Peterson, CFA CAIA via X)…

This post explains the rationale for Bitcoin ETFs over self-custodied Bitcoin. (Speaking from experience, but not necessarily an endorsement of such ETFs): ETFs fill a need and are designed to permit exposure to Bitcoin for professional, registered investment advisors in the US and others in the traditional investment system. Money managers in particular have unique

Bitcoin ETFs represent a “spiritual reversal” of the U.S. government’s confiscation of gold (from balajis.com)…

History is running in reverse. Ninety years ago, FDR and his fellow travelers rode the 20th century arc of centralization. The chokepoints of then-new technologies for mass media and mass production allowed them to gain control over the population, recruit top talent for their “Brain Trust”, and seize the gold after a series of epic