Bonds & Credit Markets

A decade ago, foreigners owned 33% of U.S. government debt. That number has now declined to 23%, see chart below.

The Quarterly Refunding Announcement sparked a sizable decline in Treasury yields, but the rally may not last. The announcement was well received because it guided towards just one more increase in coupon sizes, a compositional skew towards medium term tenors, and a potential for further increases in the share of bills. These developments were positive

Estimated annualized interest payments on the U.S. government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022.

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday lowered its ratings outlook on the United States’ government to negative from stable, pointing to rising risks to the nation’s fiscal strength. The ratings agency has affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the U.S. at Aaa. “In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy

An unlikely aberration has taken place in global bond markets for the first time on record: yields on emerging-market bonds in local currencies have fallen below US Treasuries. A selloff in U.S. government debt since May has sent borrowing costs for the world’s largest economy soaring to an average yield of 5%. But local-currency sovereign

Investors turned the most bullish on bonds since the global financial crisis on “big conviction” that rates will move lower in 2024, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey. The monthly survey showed investors were dumping cash to hold the biggest overweight position in bonds since 2009. BofA’s Michael Hartnett said