September 2023

BREAKING: Fed futures now no longer show rate CUTS beginning until September 2024. To put this in perspective, three months ago futures were expecting 4 rate CUTS in 2023. Now, interest rates are expected to PAUSE for at least 1 year. The Fed has made it clear, higher for longer is here to stay. They

#Volmageddon 2.0 brewing? chart via @zerohedge

Don’t look now, but there’s an interesting attempt quietly under way in Washington to deal with Social Security’s massive financial problems. Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump talk about leaving Social Security intact—but don’t talk much about how to pay for the fixes the system needs to keep its trust fund from being tapped

This was the most important chart from our last Weekly Update. Leading Indicators have been in decline for well over a year.  Cyclical sectors have flattened out and are starting to roll over but are not yet contracting strongly.

The auto workers strike is filled with wildcards.  A new union boss. Carmakers navigating a costly transition to EVs. Car dealers and auto-parts suppliers caught in the middle. And it is all happening amid a period of drastic change in how cars are made—and how we buy them. These are some of the key factors

Generational financial crises occur when the number of debt claims reaches extraordinarily high levels and interest rate cuts can’t paper over it anymore. In 2008, either the number of debt claims had to collapse, or the amount of base money had to go up. They chose the latter. In 2007, there were 64 contractual claims

1/n It’s always a bit sad to see posts like this proclaiming the low-end household is “in great shape.” One, talk to them. They’re not. Two, the analysis is just wrong. Let’s dig in. 2/n The Fed data is misleading when aggregated. Several will proclaim, “it’s real estate” or “of course, stock markets are higher.”