Martin Fridson

The price of the bond featured this month has fallen sharply during the year – but our team believes the bond represents solid risk-adjusted value at current prices. We think the bond will ultimately be valued materially higher than it is today.

In looking at the distressed-bond market today, Marty Fridson suggests: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to get very bumpy. But investors who remain rational will profit extravagantly from the foreseeable disconnect between value and price in the lower-quality end of the corporate bond market.

Investors are concerned that the products of the company featured this month are on the wrong side of history and condemned to permanent decline. This report will explain how the company is reinventing itself – and will remain a survivor – and propelling the price of its bond higher.

As distressed-debt analysts, we have to keep tabs on the developments with the bankruptcy code. Typically, our most likely case is that the bond issuer will manage to make all the required interest payments and repay the principal at maturity. But not always.

This month’s recommendation reminds us of our very first recommendation in March 2023, when we wrote about Diversified Healthcare Trust’s 9.75% bonds. We believe that in both cases, investors were looking backward rather than forward, creating an opportunity for high, risk-adjusted returns.