While the possible collapse of the Treasury-bond market and the end of the global dollar financial system will certainly be catastrophic for many companies, there are still plenty of great businesses that will continue to provide goods and services and earn good profits.
In our democracy there’s a huge incentive for people to vote for benefits (money, credit, patronage) they do not have to pay for. These incentives create huge inefficiencies in our economy. Thus, Porter writes, it’s unlikely Elon Musk or anyone will be able to reduce government spending – and Social Security will disappear.
Today we look at the key vulnerability facing the U.S. economy: the end of the wealth effect created from the greatest bull market of the last 50 years, and how it removes a key pillar of strength holding up the U.S. economy.
Over the last 50+ years, the entire global financial system has been organized around paper money. But, there’s a problem: fiat systems always fail. And the current system is now starting to break down, Porter writes.
What should investors do when facing a lost decade in future equity returns? Find businesses that are the absolute masters of capital allocation, creating enormous value by investing their cash flows in the best possible ways.
Like it or not, stocks are now so expensive that it’s virtually certain that equity returns on the S&P 500 will not be very attractive for the next decade. But if you hold great businesses and if you’re prepared to hold them for the long term, then there’s nothing to worry about, says Porter.
Equity prices are at multi-decade highs. As such, Porter predicts, it will take at least a decade for many of today’s S&P 500 members to “grow” into their current valuations.
Fifty-five years ago, Warren Buffett announced his retirement. In 1969, the legendary investor felt he could no longer generate the 30% returns he had been generating. Then things changed…
In today’s Daily Journal, Porter writes that Americans now have more capital allocated to the stock market than ever before. And thus, stocks are now trading at record-high valuations. This has led to one outcome when this has happened in the past… And it’s not a good one.