Editor’s Note: On Tuesdays we turn the spotlight outside of Porter & Co. to bring you exclusive access to the research, the thinking, and the investment ideas of the analysts who Porter follows.
(If you’re new to The Big Secret on Wall Street and want to learn more about this membership benefit, you can read all about it here or check out our previous Spotlights here.)
This month, the Spotlight has been on Mason Sexton.
If you don’t know Mason’s work, he’s a Wall Street legend – albeit a controversial one – who for decades advised some of the largest pools of capital in the world.
These days, he still serves many high net-worth individuals and firms but has also dedicated himself to helping millions of self-directed investors by sharing what he calls his “Map.”
Over the years, Porter has received dozens of letters from his subscribers praising Mason, his work, and the results they generated following his trading advice.
And as Porter wrote last week, “at my recent retreat (Canyon Ranch) Mason’s work was the most discussed amongst a group of attendees where the average net worth was in excess of $100 million.”
While it’s certainly not for everyone – Mason’s methods are amongst the most divisive we’ve ever seen – we believe you’ll be a better, more informed investor by reading his work.
It’s why, today, we’re thrilled to Spotlight some of Mason Sexton’s research – work that is usually reserved exclusively for his paying members.
Enjoy.
P.S. Mason also just issued a major new prediction… It revolves around a market shock that he sees coming as soon as March 12 and that he says could derail Trump’s presidency. He outlines everything for you – including how he is urging his readers to prepare for and potentially profit from the financial fallout – in his latest video here.
Trump 2.0: A New Administration, A New Economic Plan
With the dawn of 2025, America is once again under the leadership of a familiar figure: Donald J. Trump. Renowned for his bold policies, polarizing rhetoric, and market-altering decisions, Trump’s return to the presidency promises a new economic direction — or perhaps a revival of the signature strategies that defined his first term. The stakes could not be higher. Interest rates, fiscal deficits, and global economic dynamics stand at a critical juncture, with the potential to shape not only the nation’s financial landscape but also its role on the world stage.
Trump’s economic vision for 2025 is likely to be ambitious, unconventional, and fraught with opportunities and risks. From supply-side policies aimed at boosting productivity to expansive fiscal initiatives and assertive trade negotiations, his administration’s approach will chart a unique path for growth and stability. The Federal Reserve will face the daunting task of responding to these policies without destabilizing interest rates or derailing long-term economic goals.
Throughout history, transformative economic policies have left indelible marks on the nation’s trajectory. The fiscal restraint of Eisenhower, the tax cuts and deficits of Reagan, and the technology-driven boom of Clinton’s era all serve as reminders that policy decisions, coupled with unforeseen forces, define the rhythm of economic cycles. Trump’s second term has the potential to write a similarly pivotal chapter in America’s financial story.
One thing is clear: the U.S. economy in 2025 is poised for a dynamic and unpredictable year. Whether Trump’s strategies lead to prosperity or pitfalls will depend on the delicate balance between growth, inflation, and debt. As the old adage goes, history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes — and this time, the rhyme could carry the unmistakable cadence of a high-energy, Trumpian beat.
The Supply-Side Symphony
At the heart of Trump’s likely economic plan is a return to supply-side economics, the doctrine that powered much of Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s and underpinned Trump’s tax cuts in 2017. The logic is straightforward: boost productivity and labor supply, and you can have your cake (economic growth) and eat it too (low inflation). The results of Trump’s previous term showed mixed success, but in 2025, circumstances could favor this approach more strongly.
The U.S. economy has defied the odds over the last two years, boasting robust growth and low unemployment despite the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy. Much of this resilience can be attributed to supply-side factors: a surge in labor availability, spurred by immigration recovery and delayed retirements, and improvements in productivity driven by automation and digitization. These dynamics have shaped a baseline economic outlook that is remarkably optimistic — though not without risks.
The historical parallel here is striking. In the 1990s, under Bill Clinton’s administration, America enjoyed a similar supply-side bonanza. The rise of the internet, globalization, and a booming labor force powered economic growth while keeping inflation in check. Trump’s plan, though different in style, could aim for similar outcomes by doubling down on deregulation, energy independence, and targeted tax incentives for businesses to invest domestically.
While traditional supply-side economics can create vast wealth, critics often claim that it only helps the already-rich. But investing back into America and American jobs is something that the working Americans stand to benefit from. Along his campaign trail, Trump continued to emphasize that the backbone of America is its workers and ultimately, it was the working class that handed him the presidency. The reason they did so is simple: when you look at America’s Rust Belt, you’ll find that towns that were once thriving hubs of the coal, steel, and railroad industries are now just shells of their former selves. The jobs are simply gone. The people of those towns need a different approach to stimulate their economies. Trump offers them that new economic approach by targeting investments in the creation of well-paying jobs and upward mobility — flooding struggling Americans with much-needed opportunity after a prolonged drought.
Geopolitics and Tariffs: A Familiar Dance
Trump’s return to the Oval Office brings renewed speculation about tariffs and trade wars. In his first term, he levied tariffs on China and other trading partners, reshaping global supply chains. While these moves were initially inflationary, they also prompted domestic manufacturing investment.
In 2025, tariffs will resurface as a key tool to address geopolitical tensions and incentivize U.S.-based production. However, this time the stakes are higher. A global economy already grappling with slowdowns in developed markets could falter if trade barriers reemerge. Moreover, restrictive immigration policies — a hallmark of Trump’s platform — could counteract the labor supply gains that have kept inflation at bay.
This interplay of supply-side forces and geopolitical risks hearkens back to the early 20th century when high tariffs under the Smoot-Hawley Act worsened the Great Depression. While the circumstances today are vastly different, the lesson remains: trade policies must be carefully calibrated to avoid unintended economic fallout.
A Tale of Momentum and Opportunity
For investors, 2025 holds the promise of significant economic growth driven by strong fundamentals and a surge in supply-side energy. Trump’s fiscal stimulus measures, combined with policies aimed at boosting productivity, could propel corporate earnings to new heights — particularly in transformative sectors like infrastructure, energy, crypto and AI. These industries stand to benefit from targeted tax incentives and deregulation, creating opportunities for both innovation and expansion.
While high valuations in equities may temper some expectations, they also reflect optimism about the economic future and the potential for sustained growth. Markets thrive when momentum is supported by robust fundamentals, and Trump’s policies could help ensure that the foundation for growth remains solid.
History offers encouraging parallels. In the 1990s, a booming tech sector not only drove significant economic expansion but also laid the groundwork for long-term advancements that reshaped industries.
That’s not to say there won’t be challenges along the way, however. As is the case with any bold economic agenda, balancing the immediate rewards of fiscal stimulus with long-term fiscal responsibility will need to be carefully managed.
Yes, deregulation can spur innovation. Look back to the early 2000s, when the FCC officially classified broadband internet access as an “information service,” effectively creating a lightly regulated environment for internet service providers. That, in turn, led to the rise of powerhouses like Amazon, Microsoft and Google and allowed for the growth of startups. It created an environment that fostered competition and innovation in the online space.
But unchecked growth fueled by deregulation comes with its own costs — whether that’s a financial bubble, market instability, environmental impacts, or a degradation of consumer protections. societal disruption. As we look toward 2025 and the economy accelerates under Trump’s administration, investors will have to keep in mind there’s a price to pay for progress. It’s just up to us to determine when it’s a fair exchange.
Interest Rates: Lower for Longer?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces an opportunity in 2025 to realign interest rates in response to improving economic conditions. With global inflation sharply declining and the U.S. economy demonstrating remarkable resilience, the case for a sustained reduction in rates is growing stronger. Unlike Europe and parts of Asia, which have struggled with economic slowdowns from monetary tightening, the U.S. economy has maintained solid growth, bolstered by supply-side factors and increased productivity. Trump’s fiscal policies could amplify these trends, making a lower-rate environment more achievable.
Why might rates fall under Trump’s leadership? His administration’s focus on supply-side growth — through tax cuts, deregulation, and strategic infrastructure investments — could expand productivity and labor supply while keeping inflation pressures in check. This combination creates a rare environment where the Federal Reserve can afford to ease rates without jeopardizing price stability.
Furthermore, a thriving labor market and increased consumer spending would boost revenues, potentially mitigating the fiscal deficit concerns that might otherwise pressure rates upward.
Historically, well-executed fiscal policies have created conditions for lower interest rates. Consider the post-war U.S. economy of the 1950s: strategic government investments and robust productivity growth enabled the Fed to keep rates moderate even while financing significant national projects. Similarly, Trump’s targeted infrastructure spending and emphasis on energy independence could replicate this dynamic, creating a virtuous cycle of growth that reduces the need for restrictive monetary policy.
For investors, this environment could mean a rally in bond prices as lower rates make fixed-income securities more attractive.
The Roadmap to 2025
The economic landscape under Trump 2.0 is shaping up to be one of tremendous opportunity and equally significant risk. The forces at play — fiscal policy, market cycles, geopolitics, and interest rates — are aligning in a way that could either fuel unprecedented prosperity or trigger massive disruption.
History tells us that transformative economic shifts rarely unfold in a straight line. The boom of the 1990s, the deregulation-fueled expansion of the 2000s, and the post-pandemic recovery all carried hidden risks that only became clear in hindsight. What happens next will depend on how well investors can anticipate and navigate the coming changes.
That’s why having a guide through the chaos is critical. The Map exists for this very reason… to help you decode the deeper rhythms of the market, recognize the unseen forces shaping price action, and position yourself ahead of the major shifts before they happen.
The cycles are turning. The patterns are emerging. The opportunity is enormous, but only for those who keep their compass steady.
Regards,
Mason Sexton
Editor, The Map
Special Note From Mason Sexton
The media will tell you this is just another post-election year. That markets will behave as they always have. That a second Trump administration will be little more than a repeat of the first.
But I say don’t fall for it.
We are entering an era of economic realignment, rapid shifts in policy, and market forces most investors aren’t prepared for. Just as I predicted the Black Monday crash of 1987 to the day, the same methods I used then are flashing critical signals right now.
The coming months will be defined by tremendous volatility, historic opportunities, and moments that will either make or break portfolios. But those who understand the deeper patterns at play will have the chance to position themselves before the rest of the world catches up.
If you’re ready to see what’s coming before it happens, I invite you to get my full briefing here.