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If you have any questions or feedback, feel free to post a comment below.
I have a comment on your answer regarding how to handle portfolio size. The position size is not easily applicable, because in several cases the minimum quantity must be 100 in order to properly apply the strategy. As a consequence, depending on our budget, we need to define a balanced mix of defensive and offensive positions. Am I wrong? tks
Yes, there will inevitably be limitations in trying to replicate our tracking portfolio with a smaller account. As you correctly point out, it may not be possible to get a 1 to 1 overlap with many of our positions, since they often come in increments of 100 shares given our focus on options trading. So you’re not wrong, there’s just no way that I can tell you which positions you personally should invest in.
The other thing I would point out is that there’s no guaranteed way of knowing which stocks or even which asset classes might go up or down in a bear market. As a general rule of thumb, you should be prepared for all of your long positions to potentially go down in a market panic.
That said, I can provide some general commentary on what I personally view are more defensive positions versus offensive positions in the portfolio.
At the top of the list of positions I consider defensive is our put position in the QQQ index. Here again, this relies on the idea that the QQQ will be one of the hardest hit broad market indexes in a recession or bear market. There’s no guarantee the this will be the case, but that’s the thesis we’ve laid out in The Trading Club.
I would also consider high quality consumer staples or non-cyclical stocks like Philip Morris or Booz Allen Hamilton, as well as our precious metals positions, to be on the defensive side. As one historical market parallel, during the 2000 – 2002 dot com bust, consumer staples and precious metals performed well despite the sharp losses in the overall market indexes. But there’s a flip side to every coin. During the 2008 bear market, even these traditionally defensive assets suffered sharp losses. One strategy we employ to add an extra defensive element to these positions is to consistently sell covered calls across a portion of these holdings.
I would also classify our merger-arbitrage position in Kenvue as defensive, as this is an idiosyncratic stock that should move based on the odds of the proposed acquisition deal closing, rather than swings in the overall economy. Here again, the usual caveat – even merger-arbitrage stocks can get swept up in overall market volatility, as we’ve seen throughout history.
On the more offensive side of the portfolio, these include stocks that are more exposed to cyclical swings in the economy, like Chipotle, PayPal or Viper Energy. Also, our call positions on stocks like British American Tobacco and Cellebrite are considered offensive – as these positions can go to zero if the stock price falls below the option strike price by expiration.
That’s the closest I can get to explaining how we think about building a portfolio, without providing advice on how you should personally allocate your capital.
Hope that helps.
Thank you, it helps. It would be useful to add a column to the portfolio indicating whether the position is defensive or offensive. This would help in making choices in cases of a more limited budget. Personally, I have also reduced the contracts, for example in Kenvue.
How about a “Round Table” link under the Traing Club” for videos (like Complete Invetor)?
GC $Bill
Thanks for the note! We plan on making the quarterly videos more easily accessible shortly.
We have also added a new section to the Forum for feedback like yours, feel free to post any additional feedback in the ‘Member Suggestions’ section!
Greetings, I saw a comment in the “Trading Club Forum How To” section regarding email notifications. I wanted to comment on that, but comments appear to be disabled in that section, so I’m entering it here. I never receive email notifications on any postings, so am wondering how to fix that. I confirmed the email address listed in my account is correct, so what am I missing? – Thanks
Hello, if you’re referring to notifications of Forum comments, no, we do not have the ability for emails to be sent anytime a Forum comment is posted.
The comment in the “How To” section around Important Announcements was confirming that those Announcements would be sent via email as well as being posted on the Forum. AKA, when we post a new Trade Alert, or Weekly Issue, you will still receive email notifications of that, as well as seeing that announcement in the “Important Announcements” section.
Thanks!