Editor’s Note: On Tuesdays we turn the spotlight outside of Porter & Co. to bring you exclusive access to the research, the thinking, and the investment ideas of the analysts who Porter follows.
As our readers struggle to navigate U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars, tariffs, and efforts to devalue the dollar, we’re seeing a lot of questions about what it all means for precious metals.
Last week, Marin Katusa explored what it meant for gold (click here if you missed his essay)… and, today he’s back with an essay explaining why silver could perform even better.
It revolves around what he calls Buffett’s billion-dollar silver signal.
If you don’t know , Marin Katusa, he’s a personal friend – and sometimes rival – of Porter’s. For years, they’ve gone head-to-head on everything from major macro economic predictions and high-stakes poker games to 6-figure wagers.
While they often clash on ideas and their approach to the markets, as Porter has written before, there is nobody he holds more respect for in the resource sector than Marin Katusa.
For over 15 years, Marin has been involved in gold mines, copper mines, silver mines, oil and gas fields, lithium, clean tech, uranium… you name it, Marin has done it, and made himself and others very wealthy doing so.
In today’s Spotlight, he explains why the last time this signal appeared, Warren Buffett sank more than $650 million into silver – and owned almost 1/3rd of the above- ground silver on the planet.
And what that could mean for you in the months ahead.
Enjoy.
P.S. Katusa has an uncanny ability to spot big wins in precious metal stocks.
In fact, he’s personally just bought millions of dollars’ worth of one particular stock – while it has already made significant moves, Marin thinks this is only the beginning.
He’s not the only one. The CEO – who sold his last gold company for $2 billion – is working for a $1 per year salary because he believes the upside potential is so high.
To get the name of the company, go here now.
Warren Buffett’s Billion-Dollar Silver Buy Signal is Back
History Shows This Could Send Silver Prices Soaring
By Marin Katusa
While everyone is waiting to see if there’s any gold left in Ft. Knox, another, more obscure vault is hemorrhaging silver.
And it’s happening right in plain sight.
The last time this happened, Warren Buffett sank more than $650 million into silver and owned almost 1/3rd of the aboveground silver on the planet. So, believe me when I say it’s worth paying attention to.
Because Buffett generally doesn’t move money around just for fun.
The first time he invested in silver was in the late ‘60s. It took time, but the move paid off—with silver rising more than 1,000% in the following years.
Thirty years later, Buffett saw the same buy indicators light up again. Only this time he had more funds at his disposal. . .
· He bought 129.7M ounces of silver—more than 25% of global annual production.
That’s how convinced he was in the accuracy of his indicators. And as you can see from the chart below, silver started to go up—and up some more.
By his own admission, Buffett botched the trade, buying and selling early. But he still made more than half a billion dollars.
So, what did he see that made him so confident in the investment—and made him so much money? Three simple things:
Now here’s the interesting part: It’s been almost exactly thirty years once again.
- All three of Warren Buffett’s silver indicators are perfectly aligned — and a fourth one is in play no one saw coming.
Which means another billion-dollar opportunity is right in front of you, but not for long.
Let me show you exactly how close we are to seeing silver skyrockets.
Silver’s “Third Turning” Is Unfolding…
In the early ‘90s, industrial demand for silver surpassed production. That ongoing deficit is the #1 reason Buffett decided to step in:
The production and reclamation of silver [are] running about 100M ounces less than consumption.” – Warren Buffett
By 2001, the cumulative deficit stood at 1.2 billion ounces. It wasn’t until 2006, the year Buffett sold, when the market reached equilibrium.
The silver surplus lasted until 2021 when the deficit returned with a fury.
The combined deficits of 2021-2022 demolished the cumulative surpluses from the previous eleven years.
And it hasn’t let up. The three largest silver market deficits in recorded history have been in the last three years.
The cliff has been eerily similar to when Buffett was watching in the mid-‘90s:
Warren bought in at a cumulative 700M oz. deficit. The market zoomed right past that last year.
And Sprott Asset Management predicts that the annual deficit will continue, averaging more than 200M ounces through 2030.
The Silver Vaults Are Getting Ransacked
Of course, Buffett considered secondary silver supply as a solution to the deficit.
“There [are] enormous quantities of silver above ground… that could conceivably add to supply.” – Warren Buffett
But he quickly observed that those inventories were “falling materially.”
And once again, the major vaults have been quietly hemorrhaging silver for years. From 2021-2023, COMEX depositors withdrew a third of its silver—120M ounces.
And from its peak in 2021, LBMA is down more than 400M ounces.
- It dropped 71M ounces, or nearly 10%, in January 2025 alone.
Based on LBMA movements, from the past three years, the vault will be dry by 2028.
Which brings us to the third part of Buffett’s thesis: silver supply cannot and will not be replaced very quickly.
There [are] relatively few pure silver mines, so it [is] not easy to add production.” – Warren Buffett
Less than a fifth of silver production is from mines that primarily produce silver.
So supply is stagnant. Despite rising industrial demand, silver supply in 2024 was less than it was in 2014. It’s expected to stay low—even though new demand from an unexpected source is accelerating.
Silver’s Day in the Sun
Solar has taken over from photography as the primary demand driver for silver, and demand is skyrocketing.
Solar’s demand for silver doubled from 2022 to 2024, from 12% of the market to 23% of the market.
Sprott estimates that by 2030, 370M ounces of silver will be needed for solar annually.
Remember: All three of Buffett’s indicators are perfectly aligned.
And there’s rising demand from solar.
That’s why Katusa Research believes we’re in the earliest stages of a long-term silver bull market.
Back when Buffett invested, other people made fortunes, too—like Tom Kaplan (billionaire today and largest collector of Rembrandts globally), and Ross Beaty, back when he was the CEO of Pan American Silver.
Buffett’s move happened right while Ross was taking Pan American public, and it helped make Ross a billionaire.
Now Tom sees the same thing happening again:
Buffett took his position at $4.50, and silver ultimately went back to $50. You’re going to see something not dissimilar once again, in silver.” – Tom Kaplan
If investors are going to make billions from silver, Katusa Research readers should be among them. That’s why the Katusa Research team has prepared a special guide to silver:
Silver’s Perfect Storm: A Comprehensive Guide to 2025’s Most Undervalued Metal
Included in the guide:
- How silver’s dual role, SWAP Line politics, and historical cycles are aligning for explosive gains
- A battle-tested framework for finding the best silver investments before Wall St.
- How to use the Way of the Alligator to position yourself for the next mega-move in silver
Download the guide and start reading it now. You won’t regret it.
Regards,
Marin Katusa
Founder, Katusa Research