Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, joined the Forward Guidance podcast for a must-listen conversation on the current stress in the U.S. Treasury market (from Forward Guidance on September 28)…

You can watch and listen on Youtube via the timestamps below: 00:00 Introduction 24:37 Powell Is No Volcker – Luke Gromen 28:18 The Fed Has Broken The U.S. Energy Market 38:35 Will Demand Destruction Keep Oil Prices From Spiraling Out Of Control (Greater than $120)? 42:51 How Long Till The Fed Intervenes? 47:49 The Banking

Veteran investment strategist Ed Yardeni warns the “bond vigilantes” are back (from The Financial Times on October 4)…

I graduated from Yale University’s PhD programme in economics six years after Janet Yellen did so in 1971. We both studied under Nobel laureate Professor James Tobin. Nevertheless, she is a liberal and I am a conservative when it comes to economic policymaking. I coined the phrase “bond vigilantes” four decades ago. Now, as the

But Treasury-market risks today appear far greater than they were when Yardeni coined the term four decades ago (from Luke Gromen via FFTT Tree Rings on October 6)…

Ed Yardeni’s op-ed in the FT is an important signpost: Credible, mainstream analysts are starting to see the US Treasury feedback loop/debt spiral, and the mainstream financial media is starting to report on it. However, they do not appear to realize two critical things yet: With all due respect to Yardeni, things are WAY different

Why U.S. Treasury “term premium” is now rising (from The Financial Times on October 9)…

Unhedged has written several times about the rising term premium, an important, and concerning, attribute of the recent sell-off in long bonds. The term premium is the extra dollop of yield investors get for holding long-dated Treasuries, as compensation for taking on interest rate risk. Think of it as the difference in yield between a

Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 corporate debt “maturity wall” by sector (from Torsten Sløk via The Daily Spark on October 12)…

The sectors that have higher refinancing needs in 2024 are Leisure, Retail, and Capital Goods in investment grade. And Transportation, Real Estate, and Autos in high yield, see charts below. Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist Continue reading here.