The buy now, pay later “holiday hangover” has arrived (from CNBC)…

When she started shopping for the holidays late last year, Kelly Andersen was struggling to buy her loved ones gifts. So she turned to a novel solution to get through the season: Buy now, pay later.  The 31-year-old freelance copywriter from Los Angeles used Klarna and PayPal  to split a variety of purchases into four

Nearly half of office commercial real estate (CRE) loans are now at risk of default (from The Commercial Observer)…

The outlook is ugly, and the numbers are even uglier.  A new paper from four economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research argues that 14 percent of the $2.7 trillion commercial real estate loan market — and 44 percent of office loans — currently carry outstanding loan balances higher than property values and are

CRE office vacancies are now at a record high (from CNN Business)…

More office space is currently sitting empty in the United States than at any point since 1979, said Moody’s Analytics, which began tracking office leasing vacancies that year. The surplus of office space is mainly due to the massive shift in how employees show up for their jobs following the COVID-19 pandemic. For many workers,

And the bill is coming due on a record amount of additional CRE debt over the next few years (from The Wall Street Journal)…

The troubled commercial real estate market is bracing for a record amount of maturing loans, boosting the prospect of a surge in defaults as property owners are forced to refinance at higher rates.  In 2023, $541 billion in debt backed by office buildings, hotels, apartments and other types of commercial real estate came due, the

The housing market “deep freeze” continues (from Charlie Bilello)…

Fewer US existing homes are selling today than at any point since 2010. The 3.78 million annual rate from December was even below the lowest level of sales during the 2020 covid shutdowns (4.01 million). The 4.09 million existing homes sold during 2023 was the lowest activity we’ve seen since 1995. Why are home sales

A small-cap merger arbitrage opportunity with double-digit upside potential (from Special Situation Investments)…

Neighbourly Pharmacy (NBLY) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside This is an intriguing non-binding stage merger arbitrage opportunity in Canada. While the market is skeptical about transaction closing, I think there is a solid chance that the situation will successfully play out in the coming weeks or months. NBLY is a C$700m market cap Canadian

Activist short seller Culper Research alleges fraud in a Chinese medical-supply firm (from Culper via X)…

1) We are short Jin Medical International Ltd $ZJYL, a China Hustle-style charade. Jin sells wheelchairs and parts in China. In 2022, its revenues fell 8% to just $19M. $ZJYL trades at ~45x revenues. At reasonable “peer” levels of 1-6x sales, $ZJYL shares fall 90% or more. 2) $ZJYL went public in March 2023, underwritten

With the imminent rescheduling of cannabis from from a Schedule III to Schedule I drug, insiders have perked up in the stocks (from Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor)…

We saw Jason Wild of [Terrascend (TSND.CN)] gobbling up stock all of 2023. This [month] we note insiders bought at Tilray Brands (TLRY). Granted it’s not a pure play cannabis company anymore (they bought a craft beer basket from BUD in 2023, e.g. ShockTop, RedHook, etc), but the CFO’s spouse bought ~$37K worth, the CEO