Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said he’s bought “massive” bullish positions in two-year notes, as he’s become more worried about the economy. In recent weeks, “I started to get really nervous,” Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Family Office, said in an interview with hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones at a conference last week. “So I bought
A decade ago, foreigners owned 33% of U.S. government debt. That number has now declined to 23%, see chart below.
The Quarterly Refunding Announcement sparked a sizable decline in Treasury yields, but the rally may not last. The announcement was well received because it guided towards just one more increase in coupon sizes, a compositional skew towards medium term tenors, and a potential for further increases in the share of bills. These developments were positive
Estimated annualized interest payments on the U.S. government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022.
Moody’s Investors Service on Friday lowered its ratings outlook on the United States’ government to negative from stable, pointing to rising risks to the nation’s fiscal strength. The ratings agency has affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the U.S. at Aaa. “In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy
An unlikely aberration has taken place in global bond markets for the first time on record: yields on emerging-market bonds in local currencies have fallen below US Treasuries. A selloff in U.S. government debt since May has sent borrowing costs for the world’s largest economy soaring to an average yield of 5%. But local-currency sovereign
Investors turned the most bullish on bonds since the global financial crisis on “big conviction” that rates will move lower in 2024, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey. The monthly survey showed investors were dumping cash to hold the biggest overweight position in bonds since 2009. BofA’s Michael Hartnett said
Fed hikes are having a more negative impact on companies with higher leverage, lower coverage ratios, and weaker cash flows. Specifically, the latest data for the third quarter shows that downgrades by S&P of CLO collateral have surpassed upgrades by a ratio of 4:1, see the first chart below. The bottom line is that Fed
Worries about an economic downturn aren’t enough to dissuade market participants from being bullish on risky debt as their top contrarian trade, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. Despite heavy outflows in 2023 and countless warnings about the health of heavily indebted companies, 52% of 506 respondents see opportunities in high-yield bonds,
This capital efficient business is poised to profit from the boom in online gambling… and despite its incredible economics and growth trajectory, currently trades near historic low valuation levels.