The Fed has hiked rates 525 bps since March 2022 but the net interest payments of corporations has actually declined. Why? Many companies locked in low interest rates on their debt in 2020-21 and are now earning much higher yields on their cash.
Year-to-date default rates in the US and Europe are already above 2008 levels. Interestingly, this is barely getting any attention. We are on track to see more defaults in the US and Europe than all years back 2009, other than 2020. Default rates have nearly tripled since 2022 when the Fed started raising interest rates.
There are two options, higher for longer or recession will hit and interest rates go down, but credit spreads go up. Both scenarios would trigger delinquency wave.
45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st. That’s not good.
Bunch of data points suggest a substantial weakening in consumer spending in August. If the consumer is actually fading, very hard for equities to hold these levels. Morgan Stanley, Chase, and Citi retail sales trackers all weakened a lot in Aug. Short thread. Chase credit card spending tracker also showing some weakness: h/t @Econ_Parker This
As tracked by Atlanta Fed, much of slowdown in wage growth has been concentrated in lowest-earning quartile (blue)… highest-earning quartile (orange) has seen growth roll over but barely.
As of August, massive uptick in % of households saying they’re much worse off vs. a year ago (blue) per NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
The restart of student-loan payments could divert up to $100 billion from Americans’ pockets over the coming year, leaving consumers squeezed and some of the nation’s largest retailers fearing a spending slowdown. Starting Oct. 1, tens of millions of student-loan borrowers will need to make payments averaging between $200 and $300 each month. The payments
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has now surpassed the highs of: – Dot Com bubble – Financial Crisis – Pandemic This won’t end well
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs. Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time,