September 2023

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.  The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’

The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets. “Buybacks can play an important role in helping to make the Treasury market more liquid and resilient,” Frost said Thursday in

There is a rare and powerful trend occurring in bond markets. History shows that if left unchecked, it can cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. A thread. Over the last 3 months, US bond markets are in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. The TMC VAMD

10-Year Treasury Yield moved up to 4.55% today, highest since Oct 2007.  Real 10-Year Yield (adjusted for expected inflation) of 2.18% is the highest since Jan 2009.  Good times for new bond investors, bad times for existing bond investors.

from Deutsche Bank — 10-year Treasury yields have averaged 4.5% in 233 years of data we’re back to normal baybee