June 2023
These signs cast doubt on the “new bull market” narrative (from The Lead-Lag Report on June 2)…
With that cloud of [debt ceiling] uncertainty likely behind us now, are short-term conditions back to favorable? AI mania is running wild. The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 30% year-to-date. The recession narrative continues to build slowly, but nothing appears imminent. The VIX is still near 2023 lows. It sure looks like we’re back
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Research from Bank of America suggests stock market earnings are likely to continue to weaken in the months ahead (from The Daily Shot on June 5)…
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Jeffrey Kleintop, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, warns that the U.S. is in a “cardboard box recession” (from the Charles Schwab International Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy on June 5)…
During the typical global recession, all areas of the economy (like manufacturing, services, retail, construction, and trade) tend to turn down around the same time. Yet, over much of the past year, only manufacturing and trade seem to be in a global recession, according to indicators such as industrial production, worldwide trade volumes, job growth
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The Fed’s aggressive tightening is weighing heavily on speculative venture capital (VC) funding (from S&P Global Market Intelligence on June 9)…
Venture capital investments worldwide dropped 47.8% year over year in May to $18.85 billion from $36.08 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The number of funding rounds slumped 38.9% to 1,129, from 1,847 a year earlier. May totals increased slightly from the previous month, when $16.52 billion was raised across 1,057 venture capital-involved
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Two veteran bankers – John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James – join the Forward Guidance podcast to share an insider’s view of recent bank troubles and what they mean for the economy going forward (from the BlockWorks Forward Guidance podcast on June 9)…
You can listen here or watch on YouTube using the timestamps below: 00:00 Intro 13:45 Liquidity In Secondary Loan Market 28:03 Commercial Real Estate 35:22 There’s Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs 41:41 The Giant Flaw In The “Banks Don’t Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits” Argument 44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now,
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Two more unique “indicators” suggest the U.S. economy may now be starting to “crack” (from the Financial Times on June 12)…
Nestled just below Michigan in northern Indiana sits the RV capital of the world. The city of Elkhart earned that moniker for the dominant role it plays in the production of recreational vehicles, with nearly 90 percent of all units in the US and Canada manufactured there or in the surrounding area, according to the
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