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When Ecstasy Turns To Agony
In looking at the distressed-bond market today, Marty Fridson suggests: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to get very bumpy. But investors who remain rational will profit extravagantly from the foreseeable disconnect between value and price in the lower-quality end of the corporate bond market.
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Sell Alert: Cerence AI’s 1.5% Convertible Bond
In the Distressed Investing April 10 report, “Car Talk,” we recommended buying Cerence AI’s 1.5% convertible bond maturing July 1, 2028. Today, we recommend selling the bond. At the time of the recommendation, the bond was priced at $692, which equated to annual yield of 13.6%. We indicated that we thought it extremely unlikely that
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Sell Alert: Shares of Green Plains
In the May 8 Distressed Investing report, “Cracking the Code,” we recommended the combined $1,000 purchase of one Green Plains 2.25% convertible bond, then trading at $774, and shares of Green Plain stock (Nasdaq: GPRE), then trading at $3.66. At the time this equated to one bond and 61.7 shares. Recently we recommended selling the
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A Second Life For An American Icon
Investors are concerned that the products of the company featured this month are on the wrong side of history and condemned to permanent decline. This report will explain how the company is reinventing itself – and will remain a survivor – and propelling the price of its bond higher.
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Opioids, Bankruptcies, And The U.S. Supreme Court
As distressed-debt analysts, we have to keep tabs on the developments with the bankruptcy code. Typically, our most likely case is that the bond issuer will manage to make all the required interest payments and repay the principal at maturity. But not always.
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Sell Alert: Green Plains 2.25% Bond
In the May 9 Distressed Investing report “Cracking The Code,” we recommended purchasing Green Plains’ 2.25% bonds maturing March 15, 2027. We now recommend selling those bonds. In May, when we recommended them, the bonds were trading at $785, which equated to an annual return of just over 16%. We suggested pairing each bond with
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Investing With A Titan
This month’s recommendation reminds us of our very first recommendation in March 2023, when we wrote about Diversified Healthcare Trust’s 9.75% bonds. We believe that in both cases, investors were looking backward rather than forward, creating an opportunity for high, risk-adjusted returns.
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Sell Alert: Half Position Of Shares Of Green Plains
Yesterday, August 27, Green Plains (Nasdaq: GPRE) announced that it had agreed to sell its 120 million gallon per year ethanol plant in Obion, Tennessee, for $190 million. This equates to an impressive valuation of $1.58 per gallon of capacity. Shares of GPRE rose 12% to $11.18 per share following the news. We recommend selling half
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Guilty Until Proven Innocent
Many beaten-down bonds deserve to be beaten down and never to recover. A smaller number of issuers, also beaten down, do have the wherewithal to make good on their obligations and strengthen their balance sheets.
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Just Because They’re Down Doesn’t Mean They’re Out
A noteworthy entrant to the distressed ranks is Xerox (XRX) – in the 1980s, the copier producer’s stock was one of the greatest performers ever, registering an astounding 4,500-fold gain in the 50 years through its all-time high on May 3, 1999. Xerox’s senior debt is now on the watchlist for downgrading.