The first big wave of corporate debt is coming due next year (from Bloomberg)…

Some of the largest U.S. companies face billions of dollars in additional interest costs and hits to their profit if they refinance their 2024 maturities at current rates, with a third of them lacking the cash to repay upcoming debt. Non-financial companies in the S&P 500 have a combined $107.7 billion in debt coming due
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Despite rising risks, this indicator says there’s still no fear in the corporate debt markets (from Global Rates and Money Flows)…

No fear here… In fact, it’s just the opposite. One way of measuring sentiment is through the relationship between junk bonds and higher quality (investment grade) corporate bonds. The well-worn method of doing this is by looking at the difference in yield between the two, commonly known as the spread. Junk bonds yield more than
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A growing number of Americans are pulling money from their 401(k) plans to make ends meet (from CNN)…

The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters, according to an analysis by Bank of America of its clients’ employee benefit programs. That figure now stands at 18,040, the highest level in at least the past five quarters since Bank of America started tracking this
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Walmart warns of weakening consumer spending (from CNBC)…

Walmart on Thursday topped Wall Street’s fiscal third-quarter earnings estimates as sales rose, but the big-box retailer struck a cautious tone with its outlook after it saw consumer spending weaken at the end of the period. The company’s shares slid more than about 8% on Thursday after they touched an all-time high the previous day.
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Commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) delinquencies hit a new post-COVID high last month (from Trepp)…

The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate moved higher again in October 2023, but there were a lot of moving pieces in the latest report. Overall, the delinquency rate rose 24 basis points in October to 4.63%. That is the highest reading since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.   However, one large industrial delinquency influenced the numbers
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There has never been a worse time to buy a home instead of rent (from The Wall Street Journal)…

Getting on the property ladder has rarely been tougher for first-time buyers. But a tight housing market isn’t turning out to be a bonanza for landlords either. The cost of buying a home versus renting one is at its most extreme since at least 1996. The average monthly new mortgage payment is 52% higher than
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Mortgage demand has cratered (from The Kobeissi Letter)…

Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels and at its lowest level since 1994. From its peak in 2021, mortgage demand is down ~64%. Current mortgage demand is ~75% below the 2005 peak. The most incredible part of this? Mortgage rates are still only at their historical average. Housing market activity is coming
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Overdue commercial property loans hit 10-year high at U.S. banks (from The Financial Times)…

Delinquent commercial real estate loans at U.S. banks have hit their highest level in a decade, as higher interest rates, an uncertain economy and the rise of remote working pile pressure on building owners. The volume of past-due loans in which owners of properties rented to others have missed more than one payment jumped 30
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